What is the Story in Today’s Geared Market, and What Will the Story be Tomorrow?
The Federal Reserve has started QE4 with huge injections into repo markets. Regardless of what you call it, upwards of 2 trillion dollars of bonds are due on their balance sheet over the next few years. They will either let their balance sheet unwind significantly or purchase more Treasury debt in some form. This is by no means a “don’t fight the fed” moment. Global QE infusions, if thought of as a boxer throwing punches are punching with much less force these days. The next important topic is politics. Toroso does not have a political perspective but, as with the Fed, politics drives markets, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future in the US and globally. The story today is one of uncertainty. There has never been more policy uncertainty in the markets. Making economic judgments based on traditional market data is hard with so much uncertainty, which is why so many current commentaries are talking politics.